MLB Mock Draft 2024: Who Will Go #1?

The MLB Draft is this Sunday and will change the future of the league. A lot of good prospects grace the top of the draft with the top pick changing players throughout drafts multiple times. There’s a million different things that could happen on Sunday but here’s my opinion. 

#1 Cleveland Guardians: JJ Wetherholt SS (West Virginia)

Before the season started Wetherholt looked like an easy top three prospect but after suffering a hamstring injury that kept him out multiple weeks his draft stock tanked. Recently it seems other top pick options aren’t willing to take under slot value like Wetherholt is and the Guards want to save money for later in the draft. If I was the Guardians I see a lot more potential in Condon and Bazzana but Wetherholt is not a bad option whatsoever. Wetherholt has amazing raw power for only being 5-10. His 2023 where he was fully healthy he stole 36 bases but his 2024 season he only stole 6. This shows the concern for constant hamstring injuries plaguing his career. His hit tool is solid and he really worked on his plate discipline walking a lot more in less games. He’s not getting drafted for his defense but it isn’t a reason not to draft him. A very solid pick with potential to become an All Star.

#2 Cincinnati Reds: Travis Bazzana 2B (Oregon State)

My favorite player in this class, Bazzana, is as pure as a hitter comes. He has the power to hit 30 homers a season especially in Great American smallpark and the hit tool to spray balls all over the field. He drills line drives and doesn’t chase what more could you ask for. He should fly through the minors and could be up next season. With the Reds already filled future infield and Bazzana being an average to below average defender he could move to a corner outfield and be fine. At worst he’s likely a solid role player on a good team. 

#3 Colorado Rockies: Chase Burns RHP (Wake Forest)

The Rockies seem to be trying to boost their pitching prospects after taking Chase Dollander last year. It's Coors so the Rockies are never going to sign pitchers so you have to take risks in the draft. Burns is a lot like Jack Leiter from a few years ago with a big fastball and great slider but hasn’t found the third pitch yet using a changeup and curveball slightly throughout the season. His command isn’t the best but you can’t deny the stuff and I’m a big believer you can teach better command. There’s a chance the Rockies go Hagen Smith here, the other best college pitcher from Arkansas but I feel Burns is the top pick here. 

#4 “Oakland” Athletics: Jac Caglianone 1B/RHP (Florida)

My least favorite of the top prospects in this draft, Caglianone has the chance to become a massive bust or an All Star power hitter. Cags has plus, plus power from the left side his main problem is his hit tool. He tries to hit everything mainly because he knows he can hit any pitch for a homer but that leads to a lot of chase and a lot of bad hit balls. Pitchers threw him a lot of stuff dropping out of the zone which led to way too many ground balls. Best case scenario is Cags is a MVP candidate hitting 50 homers a year but worst case scenario he can’t get past his problems and can’t get through the minors. He’s a solid defender with a big arm so he could move to right and be a solid starter even without making a lot of contact. In college he has also been a pitcher the past two years where he can throw up to 101 mph. I don’t see him being a starter at the big league level as he really can’t control his pitches but has the stuff to become a reliever. The reason I have him over Condon here is the A’s are moving to Sacramento next season. Vegas they need a high profile prospect to get some fans in seats and Caglianone has the largest social media reach of any prospect. 

#5 Chicago White Sox: Charlie Condon 3B/OF (Georgia)

This would be a sharp fall for Condon who was once seen as the easy #1 choice and one of my favorite prospects but if the Reds pass I think this is Condon’s next landing spot. He falls in the Sox’s lap here at five. Condon broke the NCAA record for homeruns in a season 37 in only 60 games showing his top power in the class. His hit tool is pretty good but he needs to swing at slightly better pitches but it’s better than most top prospects in this class. His main problem is his defense. He mostly played third base this season and wasn’t too bad making some splash plays with his athleticism but when put in the outfield in 24 games this season it seemed it was hard for him to track balls of the bat leading to little range compared to an average outfield. He has the arm though to play third or a corner outfield spot and the physical tools being 6’6” can help him develop into a solid defender. He has shown throughout his college journey that he has the work ethic to become great, starting as a walk-on barely getting D1 offers to being the Golden Spikes winner he’s a guy to take a bet on.

#6 Kansas City Royals: Bryce Rainer SS (Harvard-Westlake, CA)

There’s a lot of different places the Royals could go here. Do they continue taking top lefty arms like Hagen Smith as they’ve done in the past or do they address their weak minor league outfield prospects but I think they take a massive swing and take the first prep player from the class that is Rainer. He and Konnor Griffin are the top prep hitters in the class with experts going back and forth on who’s the top but with the Royals system lacking a real superstar prospect I think they swing big and go with the highest floor prep prospect with solid potential. Rainer has a solid swing and came into his senior season bigger and stronger at 6’3” 195 lbs, easily projectable to become a big power shortstop. He seems to have a solid approach not chasing or striking out a lot and has really worked hard at getting better. He has a big arm touching the upper 90s on the mound that will easily translate to short or third. Rainer can easily become a star while having better current tools than Griffin creating a higher floor than most high school prospects. 

#7 St. Louis Cardinals: Hagen Smith LHP (Arkansas) 

The first time in almost 30 years that the Cardinals have landed into the top ten in a draft and they’re determined to make it count. They could swing for the just like I have the Royals doing but I expect them to stay safe and take a higher floor player in Smith. After a great first year as a starter for Arkansas Smith jumped up draft boards to be in the debate for the top pitching spot but to me he is easily #2. He still has some great stuff, a fastball that gets up to 100 mph from the left side and a deceptive slider that lefties can’t touch and righties ground into; he doesn't have the final pitch to put everything together. This season he tried to speed the slider up and throw a funky cutter, as well as a splitter and change but nothing really worked. He doesn’t have the control you’d expect from a lefty mostly coming from his funky delivery but has the potential to be a #2 in a rotation and at worst a back end of the rotation guy.

#8 Los Angeles Angels: Braden Montgomery OF (Texas A&M)

It’s no surprise the Angels like players that can quickly move through the minors and onto the Major League team despite their problems but there’s rumors they go the high school route here. Still I don’t think they can hold themselves back from taking a high upside college player. My debate is whether they go with a more pure hitter like Nick Kurtz or Montgomery but I think Montgomery fits their needs better. Like most of the top prospects he has top of the line power but again needs a swing change pretty bad as throughout college at both Stanford and A&M he has had a massive whiff problem especially with pitches in the zone and even though it was an improvement last year was no different. The other intriguing trait for Montgomery is his 80 grade arm which on the mound can get up to 96 mph but can be a weapon in the outfield. Angels will have to wait a few months for his development after suffering a broken ankle in the Super Regionals. Even with the terrifying outcome of his hit tool he still could easily hit .250-.260 with 35 homers for a long time with the right team.

#9 Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Kurtz 1B (Wake Forest)

The Pirates need to start making strides toward winning and soon for this current front office to stick around. They have pitching for days in the minors to pair with Skenes and Jones for the next couple of seasons but they lack a true impact bat other than Termarr Johnson so they’ll likely go college here meaning the most MLB ready bat other than Condon and Bazzana is going to get picked up. With no injury problems Kurtz might be the best player in the draft. He has a great hit tool with crazy plate discipline, walking the most in NCAA last season. He can drive the ball to all fields and plays a really good first base. The injury problems though are a real concern. He hurt both shoulders in college as well as a broken rib in 2023. Could be a fixture in the middle of the Pirates lineup for years. 

#10 Washington Nationals: Konnor Griffin SS/OF (Jackson Prep, MS)

The Nationals have been a team to take high upside prep players with their picks and I think this year is no different. Just looking at their past picks they likely prefer a more toosly and young player in Griffin. Griffin has big power with a massive arm at short plus lightning speed stealing a nation high 87 stolen bases last season. He has crazy fast bat speed and with a 6’4” 205 lbs frame he has a chance to grow into a feared power hitter. His swing though needs work. His swing seems to be too long leading to a lot of mistiming of the ball but that can be corrected with the right amount of work and a good hitting coach. His fielding can easily be projected as a Gold Glove at short and in the outfield. This could be a home run for the Royals if they find the right swing coach.

#11 Detroit Tigers: Cam Caminiti LHP (Saguaro HS, AZ)

Everywhere you look you’ll see the Tigers attached to Caminiti and barring one of the top ten dropping to them they’ll likely take him here. The top prep arm in this class has the upside to blossom into a stellar player. After reclassifying and only being 17 years old Caminiti can already get high 90s on his fastball touching 98 mph with curveball, slider, and changeup he can command pretty well. He sprays pitches all over the strike zone but has been known to miss his spots coming out of his windup but he has plus stuff for his age. He can easily develop with his great athleticism in the Tiger's system that’s known to great top pitchers. 

#12 Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage RHP (East Carolina)

With Craig Beslow now heading the Sox front office it seems that he's focusing on their pitching so they’ll likely go with the best arm available in Yesavage. He seems to be an almost certified mid to end of the rotation starter. After his fastball got lit up last year whenever it wasn’t in the top of the zone he worked on his control and that was the big difference in his last two years. He also has a slider and splitter that play perfectly with the fastball. His command is like an old veteran pitcher and he should fly through the minors. He has been compared to Michael Wacha, a long time starter in the league with the chance to become something like Logan Gilbert who just made his first All Star team. With the Red Sox currently revamping their pitching development Yesavage could develop into that potential All Star. 

#13 San Francisco Giants: Carson Benge OF/RHP (Oklahoma St)

I think at this point all the Giants picks are all gone. They want a pitcher and if either of the prep bats fall they’ll happily grab them but in this mock they’re all gone. They’re known for two things while drafting, taking two way players that have potential to be great at one and taking players who drop because of injury or other reason not because of their talent. I think they stick with one of these trends and take the two player Carson Benge. He has a chance to be one of the best bats in the class if he focuses fully on it. He has high exit velocities but needs to swing at more pitches in the zone and surprisingly pull the ball more. He also can be an elite center fielder with a strong arm. A really fun prospect with a chance to fallback on the mound if something goes wrong. 

#14 Chicago Cubs: James Tibbs III OF/1B (Florida State)

The Cubs have their pick of college bats here and it seems they prefer batters with a higher hit tool meaning they’ll likely go Tibbs over Cam Smith or Christian Moore. Tibbs does whiff more than he should in the zone but that’s his only knock as he has produced high exit velocities and great plate discipline all year. He also was great in the Cape with wooden bats upping his stock. His main drawback is he really isn’t going to play a premium position, likely leftfield at the next level with a below average arm and below average speed or could potentially move to 1B which he played a bit this year but a big bat for a Cubs system that has a ton of potential. 

#15 Seattle Mariners: Ryan Sloan RHP (York HS, IL)

Seattle has been linked to a lot of prep players this draft cycle after taking three straight prep bats in the first round. This year though it seems like they’re pitcher focused and with Caminiti gone it’ll likely be Sloan that gets the nod. The massive 18 year old stands at 6’5” 220 lbs and puts every part of that into his fastball that tops out at 99 mph that he can really turn into three pitches adding some cut against lefties and sink against righties. He also has a great change up already that gets a lot of chase plus a solid slider that could develop into a plus pitch. He’s a really solid all around pitchers that could add even more muscle onto his frame and keep climbing velocity wise. The Mariners need some pitching in their organization as nearly all of their top prospects are low level position players and Sloan will really add to it. 

#16 Miami Marlins: Cam Smith 3B (Florida State)

The run on college bats will continue after a short hiatus as the new Marlins front office takes Smith. After being considered one of the best high school prospects in the 2022 draft Smith went undrafted after being known to be going to Florida State. He had a disastrous freshman year chasing and whiffing at everything in sight but then he went to the Cape league and with a wood bat won the best pro prospect award and used that to destroy in his second season at Florida State. He still has a lot of potential to tap into especially from the power and definitely isn’t as ready as a lot of other bats. His launch angle is his main problem hitting almost 50% of his pitches on the ground and rarely pulling the ball. He projects to stay at third though with a strong arm which should up his value adding to a really light on hitters Miami young core.

#17 Milwaukee Brewers: Seaver King SS/3B/OF (Wake Forest) 

This is such a typical Brewers pick that if King gets to them it’s almost a certified pick. He has a swing perfect for spray line drives all over the field but chases too much. He wants to get hits every single time up to the plate leading to chase issues and not walking almost at all. That can be easily switched with a different approach which is exactly what the Brewers are known for. He can play all over the field only keeping him back is his size but the Brewers are known to take smaller guys who have a better hit tool but still project for decent power which King could easily become a doubles machine while getting into 20 homers a year.

#18 Tampa Bay Rays: Christian Moore 2B (Tennessee)

The Rays as everybody knows are a team that nobody has any idea what they’re doing but by the looks of a disappointing season could be headed in a retooling and Moore could be a headliner for that. They like to take toolsy college bats who have questions around their hit tools and that’s exactly what Moore is. A big power bat especially from second base is always rare but it adds whiff in the zone problems that will likely have him sliding down people’s boards. Even though he didn’t put up great numbers running last season he has the speed to steal bags and even could switch from second to centerfield in the next level but his below average arm could keep him at second base. If the Rays can tap into his potential and fix his overly long swing they can turn Moore into a 25-35 homer guy.

#19 New York Mets: Vance Honeycutt OF (North Carolina)

The Mets have been tied to multiple college hitters here plus some prep arms that could go but I feel with new GM David Stearns hiring Kris Gross as his VP of amatuer scouting from the Astros they could take the Astros route and go for a high toosly player with hit tool issues which is exactly what Honeycutt is. He’s the most polarizing player in the draft as his hit tool is so bad that he whiffs at 32% of pitches and strikes out 28% of the time but the power is real. He has a chance to be a massive middle of the order power bat with big speed to steal bases when he gets on and fielding in center to become a Gold Glover. That’s a player a team’s going to take a chance on and with the right development could become a top prospect and All Star but the risks are obviously there.

#20 Toronto Blue Jays: Ryan Waldschmidt OF (Kentucky)

If any of these college bats drop to the Blue Jays they’ll gladly pick them up as Waldschmidt does here. He’s the most well rounded hitter in this tier and teams feel he can do anything in the box. He has shown a patient approach at the plate with the ability to line the ball all over the field and played well in the Cape with wood bats. This college season was the first time he played since coming off a torn ACL he suffered in the Cape which seemed to have brought his speed down early in the season but Waldschmidt seems to be fully healed by now. His only question mark is where do you put him in the field. He played 3B his first season in college at Charleston but doesn’t have the arm to sustain that at the next level. At Kentucky he was mainly a left fielder but still played below average defense out there. I’ve seen some scouts suggest with his speed he could be a solid center fielder but I don’t see it, he’ll likely be stuck in left for his career putting up solid stats at the plate likely moving somewhat quickly through the minors. 

#21 Minnesota Twins: Caleb Lomavita C (Cal)

The Twins have been tied to a million different prospects here from prep players to college arms but with how their system is they have a ton of depth mixed with high potential players but the one position they don’t have is a top catcher and there’s 3-4 that could go around this range. In my opinion Lomavita is the safest and probably best catcher of the class and most likely to stick at catcher. His stock has been rising more and more as the draft gets closer and he could go earlier. He has hit well in both college and the Cape with a super aggressive approach where he tries to lift the ball. He’s super athletic behind the plate with a plus arm but hasn’t been catching for very long so he’s still learning to throw faster and receive pitches better. He’ll add to the Twins top prospect pool.

#22 Baltimore Orioles: Brody Brecht RHP (Iowa)

The Orioles love to take players with big power plus great defenders in the first round but at this point all of them are likely gone. They could go with a tooled up high school hitter but I think they go with the best college pitcher available in Brecht. This is his area as if anyone gets their hands on Brecht from the Orioles down to the Yankees he could turn into the best pitcher in this class. His fastball slider combo is so good that I’ve seen comparisons to Skenes from last year. He can touch triple digits and the slider has crazy break. He also has thrown a splitter and change that get enough whiff and chase to play off the slider. His main problem is his control as his first year he had a 18% walk rate and this year it dropped to a still bad 14%. He has huge athleticism after playing two seasons as a wide receiver at Iowa and potential to become a star especially with the pitching development of the Orioles. If he drops there’s a million different teams that’ll look to grab him.

#23 Los Angeles Dodgers: Theo Gillen SS/2B/OF (Westlake HS, TX)

The Dodgers surrendered their second round pick for signing Ohtani this offseason so it seems they’ll go for the highest upside player in this year's draft. It could be some prep arms like Schmidt or Mayfield but I feel they’ll take what some say is the best high schooler in the draft in Gillen. He falls this far due to injury concerns, he had a torn labrum his sophomore season, a knee surgery his junior year, and even though he was mostly healthy he missed a few games with a groin injury. He has a high hit tool and the frame at 6’2” to be able to tap into power. Since his knee surgery his speed has been able to bounce back and give better than average times and should get faster as he recovers more. His defense though still hasn’t recovered, he currently has been playing short but his range is a question and his arm strength hasn’t been able to recover since his torn labrum he had surgery on it. He likely will start playing second or center to start his pro career as he continues to recover and might be better off sticking there in the future. Gillen’s tools and athleticism mixed with the Dodgers top of the line development would be a match made in heaven and in a few years Gillen could become a top prospect in their system. 

#24 Atlanta Braves: Jurrangelo Cijntje SHP (Mississippi St)

With all the second tier college hitters going before them the Braves will definitely go an arm here whether that be prep or college can’t be known but I think the most fun option for them is Cijntje. One of the most interesting prospects in the draft, Cijntje is a switch pitcher throwing with his right and left arm. He’s a legitimate first round talent with the right while being a solid reliever type from the left side so it’ll be interesting if the team that drafts him continues his switch ways or goes straight forward with the right side where he can get up to 99 mph and maybe more with just focusing on it. The Braves like to take pitchers early that have high potential that other teams might not see which is exactly what Cijntje is. 

#25 San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield LHP (Elk City, OK)

The Padres haven’t selected a college player in seven years and always go with high upside prep players this year being no different. A late bloomer, Mayfield went from throwing in the upper 80s his Junior year to touching 97 mph this season. He has a really good change to go with the fastball plus a curveball/slider pitch that he can locate well. He has massive upside as the best lefty in the class to continue to build on his momentum from last year and work to get through the minors and become an elite prospect. He is committed to Oklahoma State and teams will have to pay high to get him to sign but he’s definitely worth it and it’s something the Padres have never been scared off of doing. 

#26 New York Yankees: Tommy White 3B (LSU)

Seems to be a sense of uncertainty around the Yankees pick here. They like to go with big bats that can play at the next level but there have been ties to multiple prep pitchers. I see them going the power route with the best power bat available in White. He has raked every year in college starting with breaking the freshman record for homers with 27 at NC State, then moving on to LSU hitting 24 with over 100 RBIs helping the Tigers win the championship. He continued to rake this season again hitting 24 homers and continually driving the ball to all fields but he has a really bad chase issue. He makes a ton of contact with the chases leading to a low strikeout rate but he still needs to change his approach to ensure he’s getting his pitch. He doesn’t seem to have the arm strength after a shoulder surgery to play third at the next level and will likely have to switch to first or left to succeed but the value at the plate is there if the Yankees can unlock his plate discipline. 

#27 Philadelphia Phillies: William Schmidt RHP (Catholic HS, LA)

The Phillies have taken a high school player every year since 2020 and I don’t see that changing with the last of the second tier college hitters in White going a pick before but they still end up with a great prep arm. He has the best curveball in the class spinning it so much it tricks umpires half the time and hitters can’t touch it. His fastball has continuously gotten better maxing out at 99 mph but sitting in the mid 90s with great run. He sometimes adds a changeup that he can command well but didn’t need to use it much last year. He pounds the strike zone with all pitches and commands them well, not missing his spots much. His great stuff mixed with command make him a top prep arm that could go way earlier than this but the looming commitment to LSU has some teams scared but the Philliers have dealt with this before with prep pitchers in 2020 and 2021.

#28 Houston Astros: Walker Janek C (Sam Houston)

The Astros love to find players who have big tools and have been linked to multiple bats this draft especially at the catcher position and I think they take one of the top three in this draft with Janek. He has really good bat speed and hits the ball all over the yard. He does has chase issues which have improved this last season but are still an issue. He has impressive athleticism behind the plate and has a massive arm. He’s also the best framer in the top three catchers in the draft and can be a top defender at the next level. Definitely a solid pick for any of the last ten picks but he drops here to the Astros who always develop well. 

#29 Arizona Diamondbacks: Dakota Jordan OF (Mississippi State)

The Dbacks have three picks in the next seven so they’ll be selecting a ton of different type players with those picks. It really depends who they feel will be picked by the teams below them which is why I think they go with Jordan. The Rangers next are going to go with a college player to steal Jordan who’s the next best bat in the class so the Diamondbacks can save taking a prep player to take him here. Jordan has all the power in the world with one of the highest bat speeds in the class but really struggles with picking his pitches. He can rarely make contact with pitches and strikes out nearly 30% of the time. It’s going to take a smart team to change his swing to really unlock his bat but his speed could turn him into a solid player who can put up high home runs and steal numbers while playing an average defense in the outfield. 

#30 Texas Rangers: Michael Moore C (Stanford)

The Rangers are going to go with a college bat and the decision here really comes down to Malcom Moore or Billy Amick and I feel they likely go with the safer option in Moore. He was ranked by some as the best bat not to sign in the 2022 class heading to Stanford where he put up an impressive freshman season. His sophomore season though was underwhelming. He still put up great plate disciple stats walking and not chasing as much but not hitting as well as he did a year before. I feel that it’s definitely still in him and he can easily be a contributor at the next level with decent power. His main problem is he likely won’t be able to stick behind the plate as he was pretty bad this season and doesn’t have the arm for the next level currently. He could be moved to the outfield or first and still be decent but if a team can help him figure out to receive and block better he’ll be much more valuable.